The Overconfidence Effect?
The presidential election of 2016 will be remembered for many reasons. For those who watched the results on election night, the greatest of these was the sheer surprise that despite the universal consensus of experts, Hillary Clinton would not win the oval office. The outcome sent overnight markets crashing, as the Dow futures market plummeted 900 points, only to rebound the following day. If there is a lesson to be learned, it is the tale of the overconfidence effect: how people make predictions, and how experts often have the most difficult time accepting outcomes that differ from what they anticipated.